Classification of NuWays AG to 123fahrschule SE

Company Name:	123fahrschule SE
ISIN:	DE000A2P4HL9
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 6.10
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Philipp Sennewald

Solid Q1 against market trend; reform momentum building

123f started FY26 on a resilient note, delivering Q1 sales of € 6.7m (+1.5% yoy) in a market that continues to show broadly declining volumes. The ability to grow revenues against this trend reflects 123f's stronger brand and digital reach relative to smaller peers, which are facing increasing cost and compliance pressure in the current environment. Notably, this outperformance comes despite the ongoing demand vacuum created by prospective students deferring enrollment ahead of the reform, waiting for lower fees and digital learning options to become available, a dynamic that disproportionately affects less digitised competitors.

EBITDA came in at € 0.56m (Q1 25: € 0.67m), with the yoy decline driven by deliberate investments in the vehicle fleet and higher marketing spend aimed at gaining market share in a transitional market environment.

Management confirmed FY26 EBITDA guidance of € 1.5-2.5m, (eNuW: € 1.9m). We view the near-term cost step-up as strategically sound: building operational capacity and brand reach ahead of the reform maximises 123f's ability to capture the demand catch-up we expect from FY27e onwards, when lower price points and digital theory should meaningfully expand the addressable market.

On the regulatory front, momentum continues to build. Management reports visibly rising interest in digital solutions from both students and franchise partners following the VMK resolution in March, which confirmed January 1, 2027 as the reform implementation date. With its pre-built platform and simulator capacity already in place, 123f enters this phase better prepared than any peer. The reform permits full e-learning for theory and integrates simulators into mandatory training, two areas where 123f has invested ahead of the curve.

Overall, the release confirms the key pillars of our investment case: 123f is gaining market share in a challenging environment, management is investing deliberately rather than defensively, and the regulatory foundation for a meaningful earnings inflection from FY27e is firmly in place.

We reiterate our BUY rating with a PT of € 6.10.

You can download the research here: 123fahrschule-se-2026-04-30-previewreview-en-dfb39
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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