Original-Research: HAEMATO AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu HAEMATO AG

Unternehmen: HAEMATO AG
ISIN: DE000A289VV1

Anlass der Studie: Research Comment
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 31.70 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2023
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker; Marcel Goldmann

Preliminary 2023 figures: Revenue and earnings development in line with expectations; Guidance issued against the backdrop of increased mandatory discounts; Target price: € 31.70; Rating: BUY  
According to preliminary figures, HAEMATO AG had to accept a decline in turnover of 12.9% to € 248.2 million (previous year: € 285.0 million) in the past financial year 2022. This development is not surprising, as the record figure for the 2021 financial year was largely due to the sale of a COVID 19 lay test. However, due to an oversupply on the market, HAEMATO's management discontinued sales activities in mid-2021, resulting in a revenue gap for 2022. In the first half of 2021 alone, sales revenues of around € 25 million were generated with the rapid antigen tests. In this respect, a declining revenue development was to be expected. In our forecasts, we had projected sales revenues of € 243.9 million, which were even slightly exceeded.
 
The development of earnings is also in line with expectations. The preliminary EBIT of € 8.3 million (previous year: € 11.16 million) was within the company's guidance, which had forecast an EBIT in a range of € 8 to € 10 million. On this basis, we had expected an EBIT of € 8.9 million. The decline in EBIT compared to the previous year is also primarily due to the discontinuation of the corona lay tests. However, the focus on higher-margin products in the Specialty Pharma segment and the inclusion of the high-margin Lifestyle & Aesthetics segment has led to a visible improvement in profitability, as shown by the comparison of margins with the 2020 financial year, in which an EBIT margin of only 0.7% was achieved. In 2022, the EBIT margin was 3.3%.
 
With the publication of the preliminary figures, the HAEMATO management has issued guidance for the current financial year 2023. According to this, consolidated sales of € 220 million to € 250 million and EBIT of € 6 million to € 8 million are expected for 2023. A special aspect of this forecast is the increase in mandatory manufacturer discounts from 7.0% to 12.0% for 2023 as part of the GKV-Finanzstabilisierungsgesetz. For the 'Specialty Pharma' segment of HAEMATO, this means an increase in expenses for the procurement of goods and for transport services, which should be accompanied by a reduction in the recently-increased gross profit. However, part of this effect could be absorbed by the initiated concentration on high-margin products and the ongoing cost efficiency programme.  
While declining sales and lower profit margins are to be expected in the Specialty Pharma segment, growth in the Lifestyle & Aesthetics segment, adjusted for corona tests, should continue. Here, sales of aesthetic medicines, medical products and cosmetics are to be further expanded. In addition, the distribution of Botulinum toxin (Botox) products should become an important growth driver in this segment. In this regard, an exclusive supply and licence agreement was concluded with the South Korean company Huons BioPharma for the supply of Botox products. At the end of January 2023, the application to conduct a clinical trial was submitted to the authorities. Assuming a normal course of the trial, the company expects approval in 2025.
 
We have adjusted our estimates for 2023 to the current guidance and made a forecast reduction for both sales and EBIT. We expect revenues of € 242.10 million (previous forecast: € 269.23 million) and EBIT of € 7.45 million (previous forecast: € 10.57 million). As we do not forecast any write-ups on securities, the after-tax result of € 5.40 million should be significantly below the level of the 2022 financial year. For the coming financial year 2024, we expect a growth in turnover of 10.9% to € 268.54 million and an improvement in the EBIT margin to 4.5%. This is against the backdrop of a disproportionate development of the high-margin 'Lifestyle & Aesthetics' segment as well as the expected reduction of the mandatory manufacturer's discount to 7.0%.
 
Within the framework of our updated DCF valuation model, we have determined a target price of € 31.70 (previously: € 37.55). Both the forecast adjustments and the increase in the risk-free interest rate contributed to the reduction. We continue to assign the rating BUY.   

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/26819.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,6a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm +++++++++++++++
Date (time) Completion: 17.04.23 (12:56 am) Date (time) first transmission: 17.04.23 (2:30 pm)

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