Classification of NuWays AG to 123fahrschule SE

Company Name:	123fahrschule SE
ISIN:	DE000A2P4HL9
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 6.1
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Philipp Sennewald

Reform date set, cash raised - investment case crystallises

Yesterday, 123f announced the successful completion of a cash capital increase, placing 400k new shares at € 2.55 per share with qualified investors. The transaction was oversubscribed, generating gross proceeds of € 1.0m. Notably, CEO Polenske participated disproportionately to his ~10% existing stake, which we view as a meaningful alignment signal, particularly given the currently challenging capital market environment. Following the transaction, the share count increases from 5,558,302 to 5,958,302 shares, implying a dilution of ~7%.

Proceeds are earmarked for platform infrastructure, the franchise/cooperation rollout, simulator development, and AI-driven process automation, all investments geared towards the upcoming regulatory changes. The capital raise also enhances 123f's ability to act as a consolidator in a structurally fragmented market, where smaller analogue peers are increasingly struggling with rising costs and compliance requirements.

VMK resolution removes key overhang. The Verkehrsministerkonferenz (VMK) in Lindau on 25/26 March formally instructed Federal Transport Minister Schnieder to implement the driving school reform, with a targeted effective date of 1 January 2027. This removes the main regulatory uncertainty that has weighed on near-term demand and investment decisions since late 2025, most visibly in the simulator segment, where customers had been deferring orders pending legal clarity.

The reform permits full e-learning for theory lessons, formally integrates simulators into mandatory practical training, and reduces mandatory special drives from twelve to three. Critically, the e-learning allowance enables a genuinely asset-light, nationwide rollout as students can be enrolled digitally, complete theory online, and be handed to local franchise or cooperation partners for practical training. This represents a structurally more scalable model than the current branch-based setup and could support a meaningful step-up in sales per branch while keeping fixed cost additions limited.

FY26 guidance confirmed. Management reiterated its FY26 EBITDA guidance of € 1.5-2.5m, with early FY26 indicators described as supportive. From FY27 onwards, catch-up effects are expected as the reform takes effect, with 123f's pre-built digital infrastructure and simulator capacity seen as key differentiators versus less prepared peers.

Overall, the VMK resolution is the more meaningful of today's two announcements, as it provides the regulatory foundation the investment case has been waiting for. We reiterate our BUY rating with a € 6.10 PT based on DCF.
 

You can download the research here: 123fahrschule-se-2026-03-31-update-en-aa7b9
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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