Classification of NuWays AG to 123fahrschule SE

Company Name:	123fahrschule SE
ISIN:	DE000A2P4HL9
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 6.1
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Philipp Sennewald

Reform moves from resolution to draft law; reit. BUY

On Tuesday, the German government has published the draft legislations for the FahrschModVO (driving school modernisation regulation) and FahrlG-ÄndG (driving instructor act amendment). The drafts represent a meaningful step forward in the legislative process: where the VMK resolution in late March established political intent, the draft legislations translate this into binding legal language, with an intended effective date of 1 January 2027. In our view, the publication removes residual uncertainty around whether the reform would materialise in the form originally envisaged, and largely plays into 123f's business model.

Content broadly as expected, all group entities benefit. The content of the drafts is broadly in line with what the reform narrative has been built on. Theory instruction is fully decoupled from physical premises: attendance is no longer mandatory, and the obligation to maintain a classroom is abolished, saving the industry an estimated € 55m p.a. in fixed costs. For 123f, this removes the last structural barrier to an asset-light national rollout as students anywhere in Germany will be able to complete theory via the group's platform before being handed to local franchise or cooperation partners for practical training, structurally extending the company's addressable catchment area beyond its current branch footprint.

Moreover, simulators are formally recognised as standard training tools for the first time, with stand-alone operation permitted and manual transmission training for class B allowed predominantly via simulator. This is a direct read-through to Foerst, the group's simulator subsidiary, which was involved in the legislative consultation process and whose technology is referenced in the underlying BASt 2024 report. The transition from supplementary learning tool to legally mandated standard training instrument meaningfully expands the addressable simulator market.

Special drives shift from fixed minimum numbers to a competency-based model, improving throughput per instructor and per location and lifting unit economics per training case. A newly introduced transparency register disclosing pass rates by school adds a further structural tailwind, as it is likely to favour operators with systematic quality management over analogue independents.

FahrerWerk, the group's instructor training subsidiary, additionally benefits from the reform's opening of digital and hybrid formats in initial instructor education, enabling overregional candidate acquisition without location constraints and lowering capex per graduate.

With the legislative framework now largely set, the focus shifts to execution and 123f enters the reform with pre-built digital infrastructure, a functioning simulator subsidiary and an instructor training operation already geared towards the new requirements. We see limited read-through to our estimates at this stage but view the drafts as a meaningful de-risking of the FY27e growth assumptions embedded in our model.

For further detail, we will host a digital roundtable with CEO Polenske this Thursday, 3:30 p.m. (registration via our website).
We reiterate our BUY rating with a € 6.10 PT based on DCF.

You can download the research here: 123fahrschule-se-2026-05-06-update-en-2887b
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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