New research shows that expanding ethanol production from Brazil's second crop corn can support the growth of sustainable aviation fuel while limiting land-use change and greenhouse gas emissions.

SÃO PAULO, April 2, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The expansion of ethanol production from Brazil's second-crop corn could support the production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) while potentially limiting global land-use change and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This is the conclusion of a new study conducted by Agroicone in partnership with Amani Elobeid (Iowa State University), Miguel Carriquiry (Universidad de la Republica, Montevideo, Uruguay), and Jerome Dumortier (Indiana University Indianapolis), and published in Agricultural Economics.

The research analyzes how rising demand for corn ethanol in Brazil, partly driven by emerging SAF markets—could affect global agricultural markets, land use, and carbon emissions. Using a global agricultural trade model combined with a land-use greenhouse gas accounting framework, the study evaluates multiple scenarios of ethanol expansion and supply responses in Brazil.

The findings show that when corn production expands through Brazil's double-cropping system, where corn is planted after soybeans on the same land within the same year, additional ethanol supply can be achieved primarily through agricultural intensification rather than cropland expansion. This significantly reduces pressure for new land conversion compared with scenarios in which additional corn production would require expanding agricultural land.

Brazil's second-crop corn system already accounts for most of the country's corn production, allowing for rapid growth in output without proportional increases in cultivated area. When this production system was incorporated into the economic modelling used in the study, the land-use change associated with ethanol production drops substantially in Brazil, compared to scenario base —from roughly 40 thousand hectares per billion liters of ethanol to about 7 thousand hectares, in scenarios where changes in other variables were not considered.

The analysis also shows that ethanol produced from second-crop corn can achieve very low or even negative lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), depending on supply responses and land-use dynamics. These results are driven by four main factors: the supply elasticity of corn, the use of cropland already cultivated within the same year, the use of renewable energy sources in ethanol processing, and the production of corn co-products that substitute for soybean meal in animal feed markets.

"Brazil's double-cropping system allows farmers to increase corn production without expanding cropland. When this agricultural reality is properly incorporated into economic models, the land-use impacts of biofuel expansion can be substantially lower than previously estimated," said Luciane Chiodi Bachion, co-author of the study and researcher at Agroicone.

However, the study emphasizes that global outcomes depend heavily on how markets respond to rising ethanol demand. Conversely, if Brazil can expand second-crop corn production efficiently, global land-use change may remain limited—or even decline.

The findings highlight the importance of incorporating Brazil's double-cropping agricultural system into global models used to assess the environmental impacts of biofuels. They also underscore the need for policies that promote sustainable agricultural intensification while preventing deforestation.

Overall, the research suggests that Brazil's second-crop corn has potential to become a strategic feedstock for sustainable aviation fuel, helping support climate mitigation goals while maintaining agricultural productivity and global food security.

Key findings from the study

• Land-use efficiency: Incorporating double cropping reduces estimated land-use change in Brazil from about 40 thousand hectares to roughly 7 thousand hectares per billion liters of ethanol produced.
• Low or negative emissions potential: Under certain market conditions, second-crop corn ethanol can achieve very low or even negative lifecycle GHG emissions.
• Agricultural intensification matters: Production increases can occur mainly through intensification rather than expansion of cropland. 
• Global market responses: The scale of land-use change depends on Brazil´s capacity to respond to increased ethanol demand without reducing the supply for domestic consumption and exports. This result is connected to the supply elasticity used in the model.

Key messages

1. Brazilian second-crop corn could enable low-carbon aviation fuels: Ethanol produced from Brazil's second-crop corn could become a promising feedstock for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), helping reduce aviation's greenhouse gas emissions.
2. Double-cropping allows ethanol expansion with limited land pressure: Because second-crop corn is grown after soybeans on the same land, increased ethanol production can occur through agricultural intensification rather than cropland expansion.
3. Market dynamics will determine global land-use impacts: The extent of land-use change depends on how Brazil's corn supply and exports respond to rising ethanol demand and how global markets adjust.
4. The documented availability of land for expanding second-crop corn production in Brazil, coupled with the assumption of a high supply elasticity scenario, has implications not only for corn ethanol production in Brazil but also for expanding corn demand globally. With almost 17 million hectares of consolidated soybean area available and suitable for expanding second crop corn production, a scenario of high supply elasticity is justified. In a scenario with high supply elasticity, global corn demand may increase within certain limits, with minimal impact on the need to bring additional land into production. Equally importantly, there would be limited price impacts, reducing GHG emissions locally and limiting food price changes and food security concerns.

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