Classification of NuWays AG to Flughafen Wien AG

Company Name:	Flughafen Wien AG
ISIN:	AT00000VIE62
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 57
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Simon Keller

Cleared for take-off; Up to BUY

We upgrade FLU to BUY. The shares have delivered nearly no return since our June 2023 Hold initiation, yet the underlying case has notably improved: the operational base is stronger, the equity story has de-risked, and the group remains exposed to structurally growing air-travel demand.

Three overhangs have lifted. First, the LCC capacity cuts by Ryanair and Wizz are now reflected in the run-rate rather than a major remaining forecast risk, creating a cleaner base for FY26. Second, the cancellation of the 3rd runway removes a potential € 2bn CapEx risk. The remaining investment pipeline is clearly defined, with T3 South scheduled for 2027 and Pier North for 2031, both fundable through operating cash flow, existing cash and moderate additional debt if needed. Third, from January 2026, the airport-charge regime returned to the statutory formula. While the 2026 tariff reset lowers the passenger-tariff base, this headwind is now implemented. From 2027, tariffs should again reflect inflation, coupled with an incentive structure to support traffic growth at Vienna.

Catalysts are visible. Sequential summer 2026 traffic normalisation as the Easter distortion drops out and LCC capacity plateaus, efficiency-programme delivery partly offsetting the airport-charge cut, and T3 South opening in Q2 2027. The latter should increase Vienna’s retail and gastronomy area by c. 50%, supporting a step-up in commercial revenue per passenger (currently c. € 3.50/PAX p.a.).

European air-travel demand is set to grow at a 4% CAGR into 2030 (Roland Berger). Vienna is exposed to a diversified demand base, spanning tourism, corporates, international organisations and transfer traffic. Importantly, FWAG owns the airport infrastructure outright, with no concession expiry, giving investors a structurally cleaner long-duration cash-flow profile.

FWAG combines above-peer returns with the lowest leverage in the peer set. In 2025, the group generated a 13.2% ROE, 2.7pp above the peer median. Unlike peers that rely more heavily on debt to lift returns, FWAG’s ROE is driven operationally: above-median profit margins (18.6% vs 16.1%) and best-in-class asset turnover (45.6% vs 32.6%). This operational edge is also visible beyond the financials: Vienna ranked #1 in punctuality among European hubs with >30m passengers (source: ACI). This higher-quality return profile is one of the structural reasons to own Flughafen Wien.

Q1 26 results are due on May 21 (see p.2). We expect modest top-line growth and slightly better earnings, with EBIT seen up 3.3% yoy, as the 2026 airport-charge cut is partly offset by lower incentive plans. April traffic was soft, as expected (also see p.2), reflecting the summer-schedule transition (reduced LCC capacity) and an unfavourable Easter calendar (March 2026 vs April 2025). Both remain fully consistent with the full-year guidance for PAX.

Lastly, on the Middle East: direct route exposure is modest and already in the numbers; the second-order risk, i.e. higher energy prices weighing on travel demand, is cyclical in nature and not specific to FWAG. Historically, air-travel demand has proven resilient to geopolitical and energy shocks, with modest and short-lived declines outside of COVID-19 (the 1979 oil crisis, for example, troughed at just -1% by 1981 vs 1979; Roland Berger). We work off a medium-term de-escalation base case; on that view, today's depressed PAX reads as an entry point, in a structurally growing market.

BUY (old: HOLD), unchanged PT € 57, based on DCF.

You can download the research here: flughafen-wien-ag-2026-05-19-update-en-3e0a0
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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