Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE

Company Name:	MLP SE
ISIN:	DE0006569908
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 12
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Simon Keller

Core momentum points to guidance upside

MLP’s Q4 results mark the end of a transition year. FY25 was shaped by weak performance fees and the real estate clean-up. The core business nevertheless continued to expand. As a result, 2026 starts from a cleaner base with the underlying growth profile becoming more visible again.

Q4 group revenues increased 1% yoy to € 306m (eNuW: € 311m, also see p.2). Property & casualty remained the key growth driver, with revenues rising 11% yoy to € 46m, reflecting continued premium growth. While wealth revenues declined 1% yoy to € 138m, as expected, wealth sales excluding performance fees increased 5.8% yoy, confirming the positive trend.

Q4 adj. group EBIT rose 26% yoy to € 36m (eNuW: € 34m), thanks to lower other operating expenses and reduced loan-loss provisions (together -8% yoy). The adjustment reflects a € -9.2m goodwill impairment following MLP’s decision to abandon new real estate development projects earlier in 2025.

In 2026, we expect a 16% yoy adj. EBIT growth to € 112.5m, positioning ourselves above the guidance corridor (€ 100-110m). Revenues are expected to grow 6.6% to € 1,116m. Our estimates assume broadly stable performance fees of c. € 11m, reflecting limited visibility at this stage (eNuW). A broadly stable cost base, already visible in 2025, should support further operating leverage. We forecast a 0.8pp yoy improvement in the adj. EBIT margin (eNuW).

Importantly, the Iran conflict has not translated into any visible change in client behaviour so far. Advisory activity and inflows remained stable despite the recent geopolitical tensions. This supports the view that client decisions are driven by long-term financial planning.

The Q4 adj. EBIT growth rate of 26% also supports confidence in MLP’s mid-term outlook. A 14% adj. EBIT CAGR into 2028 looks well achievable (eNuW), even without improving performance fees. This growth should be supported by capital efficiency gains, with the dividend payout remaining at c. 50-70% (current yield c. 5%).

In sum, MLP enters 2026 from a much cleaner base, with the drag from real estate now ringfenced and earnings quality becoming more transparent. The investment case increasingly centres on a resilient and structurally growing core franchise, led by recurring revenues (72% of total), improving capital efficiency and a controlled cost base. Against this backdrop, the current valuation still does not fully reflect the visibility of mid-term earnings growth, in our view. With adj. EBIT seen to compound at 14% into 2028, even without a recovery in performance fees, and with a dividend yield of c. 5%, the risk-reward remains attractive. Near-term news flow should also be supportive, as the 2026 guidance appears conservative in our view.

BUY, PT € 12, based on Residual Income.

You can download the research here: mlp-se-2026-03-13-longupdate-en-b5a14
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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