Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE

Company Name:	MLP SE
ISIN:	DE0006569908
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 12
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Simon Keller

Broad-based growth, conservative guidance

Q2 26 delivered a step change, with EBIT of € 19.1m (Q2 25: € 4.9m) driven by a higher AuM base, performance fees and an improved interest result. Guidance was confirmed but looks conservative, hence we raise FY26e EBIT to € 116m, c. 10% above the mid-point (previously: € 113m). In detail:

Growth accelerated at group level, with sales up 14.9% yoy to € 257m after +4.3% in Q1 and flat yoy in Q4 25. The EBIT margin widened by 5pp yoy to 7.1%, reflecting operating leverage and positive mix in a seasonally weaker quarter.

• Wealth revenues grew 21% yoy to € 144m, with performance fees behind less than a third of the increase. Wealth management rose € 22m yoy to € 111m (+24% yoy), of which only € 6.4m came from the step-up in performance fees to € 8m (Q2 25: € 1.6m) and the balance from the underlying business on an 8% higher AuM base. A further € 3.6m of carried interest was booked in other income, but was mostly offset by personnel bonuses and hence almost EBIT-neutral. Real estate brokerage rose 44% yoy to € 11m, largely reflecting phasing following a 28% decline in Q1, leaving H1 up 7% yoy. Loans & mortgages (-16% yoy) stayed soft due to low application volumes. Interest income returned to growth at € 20m (+3% yoy) as the rate comp eased, and the ECB's move to 2.25% should support interest income into H2.

• Life & Health returned to growth, with revenues up 6% yoy to € 67m after -1% yoy in Q1. Old-age provision revenue increased 6% yoy to € 52m. Health insurance grew 7% yoy to € 17m, supported by rising advisory demand amid debates over Germany's healthcare system.
• Property & Casualty delivered a fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, up 12% yoy to € 41m. Managed non-life premium volume reached a record € 865m, growing 10% yoy against the 5.2% GDV expects for the German market this year, implying continued market share gains. This premium base is largely recurring and benefits from inflation-linked adjustments, underpinning revenue visibility into H2 and FY27.

The confirmed € 100-110m guidance rests on an H2 that recent history does not support. H2 would contribute just 40% to 45% of full-year EBIT, against a five-year average of 52%. In absolute terms this means € 40-50m versus € 54m adj. EBIT in H2 25, so even the top end asks for a c. 9% yoy decline at a time when the AuM base is 8% higher yoy, managed non-life premiums are 10% higher and net interest rose 15% yoy in H1. One reason is that management assumes no further performance fees at all, while we model € 6m at a 66% incremental margin. Even so, our € 116m implies an H2 share of only 48% and c. 5% underlying H2 EBIT growth once performance fees are stripped from both periods (eNuW).

To sum up, MLP combines a c. 5% dividend yield with a 72% recurring revenue share and an adj. EBIT CAGR of c. 15% into 2028e (eNuW). Even our above-guidance EBIT estimate of € 116m rests on modest underlying H2 assumptions, making a guidance hike in Q3 reasonable.

BUY, unchanged PT € 12, based on Residual Income.

You can download the research here: mlp-se-2026-08-14-previewreview-en-922e8
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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