Classification of NuWays AG to OHB SE

Company Name:	OHB SE
ISIN:	DE0005936124
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 340
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Simon Keller

Positioned for the award cycle

Q2 delivered margin expansion on more moderate growth, while the contracts underpinning the investment case are still ahead. Guidance was confirmed on both lines, and the balance sheet is now in a net cash position, leaving OHB well positioned ahead of the major award cycle.

Growth slowed to +9% yoy in Q2 from +15% in Q1 and the guidance implies a re-acceleration to 13% yoy in H2 to reach the target. This would imply that H2 contributes 55% of the full-year figure, in line with the 2025 seasonality.

Adj. EBITDA rose 27% yoy to € 33m, reflecting a 1.4pp yoy margin improvement to 9.5%. By contrast, the FY margin target implies a broadly stable yoy margin in H2. Reported Q2 EBITDA of € 10.6m includes € 22.4m of one-off costs, almost entirely related to the € 21.4m transaction costs of the capital increase. These were higher than expected, explaining our EPS estimate cut.

The only operational setback was the delay to RFA's maiden flight. Following the first pressurisation of the flight vehicle in late July, RFA identified an issue and de-stacked the rocket. The maiden flight remains expected for this year. RFA is accounted for at equity and therefore sits outside guidance; our valuation includes it only as a € 145m financial asset.

Q2 order intake of c. € 299m, equivalent to a 0.9x book-to-bill, should mark the trough ahead of an H2 acceleration. The first evidence for this came with PRISMA Second Generation, at € 82m one of the larger recent awards. The repeat mandate after the first OHB-built hyperspectral satellite launched in 2019 illustrates the recurring nature of institutional space programmes.

The most strategically important near-term opportunity is IRIS², in our view. OHB is a core industrial partner and appears to be finalising the contract in the EU constellation's 18-satellite MEO segment. The expected signing in H2 would underpin OHB's central role in the EU's third flagship space programme (alongside Galileo and Copernicus) and provide long-term visibility through the constellation's deployment towards 2030.

Several ESA awards are also approaching. One next-generation Sentinel contract is in final negotiations, as is Clearspace-1, an ESA mission led by OHB to capture and deorbit the Proba-1 satellite. The implementation phase of OpSTAR, a demonstrator mission using optical links for satellite navigation, is expected later this year.

The award cycle should broaden further from 2027, backed by ESA's € 22bn MC25 budget, Germany's € 35bn military space investment through 2030 and the proposed € 131bn EU space and defence envelope for 2028-34. German defence awards should begin in 2027, led by SATCOMBw4, a c. € 10bn programme with an estimated OHB workshare of 30-50% (eNuW). SBMD and SPOCK 2 form the other major pillars of this defence cycle.

BUY, PT € 340, based on DCF.

You can download the research here: ohb-se-2026-08-07-previewreview-en-3f46b
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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