Classification of NuWays AG to q.beyond AG

Company Name:	q.beyond AG
ISIN:	DE000A41YDG0
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 6.5
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Philipp Sennewald

QBY puts out upbeat 2028 targets; chg.

Yesterday, QBY presented its “Strategy 2028”, marking a pivotal shift in the investment narrative from a pure margin recovery story to a structured growth case. In detail:

For FY28, management targets € 250m in sales and a ~10% EBITDA margin (1.8x implied FY28 EV/EBITDA). The building blocks for these, in our view bullish, targets are a c. 5% organic sales CAGR, AI-driven upside and targeted M&A. This is underpinned by three strategic pillars:

Industry focus driving margins. Going forward, QBY intends to deepen its strongholds in logistics (€ 25m of FY25p sales) and retail (€ 50m), while entering healthcare and energy via M&A. Both new verticals currently feature fragmented IT landscapes and high regulatory complexity, thus posing a fertile ground for sovereign platforms like QBY’s. The M&A filter is disciplined, targeting companies with >10% EBITDA margins. While the strategic logic is sound, execution remains unproven . Encouragingly, management reiterated on the call that capital discipline takes precedence over deal velocity, even after having passed on several transactions last year on valuation grounds. A reassuring signal given the € 42m net cash position. Overall, M&A is expected to contribute c. € 20m towards the FY28 revenue target, with at least one deal anticipated in FY26 (eNuW). Note that future inorganic growth is not reflected in our estimates.

Top-line acceleration via AI orchestration. QBY is currently in the midst of transforming into a sovereign AI orchestrator for the German Mittelstand, building and operating industry-specific agents on its BSI-certified German data centre infrastructure. In our view, this is the most value-relevant pillar and it appears more tangible than typical AI strategy slides. The company already has a handful of paying external AI clients, is confident of reaching 20 by YE, and already has >300 agents deployed. The commercial model targets € 100-300k in recurring Managed Service sales per customer, with setup and development fees on top. The sovereign positioning creates a genuine moat against hyperscalers in the Mittelstand. However, the key open question is how quickly the recurring revenue share builds up, as the consulting-heavy early phase will be margin-dilutive before it inflects. Management targets >60 enterprise clients by FY28, translating into c. € 20m in AI revenues. We view this as ambitious and position ourselves more conservatively (eNuW: € 10m), preferring to see further tangible progress first.

Internationalisation. Nearshore hubs in Spain and Latvia are aimed to be converted into active sales hubs, targeting 10% international revenue share by FY28 vs. 3% today. This would pose a significant diversification away from the stagnating German market, though the financial impact remains comparably modest relative to the other two pillars.

Besides that, management targets FY26 sales of € 182-190m and € 10-16m, implying further margin expansion progress at mid-point. CEO Rixen confirmed on the call that the lower end represents a pure macro stress scenario and not a strategic investment drag, leaving the underlying margin trajectory intact.

That said, valuation remains highly undemanding, as shares are trading at only 3.0x FY26e EV/EBITDA. BUY, new PT of € 6.50 (post capital reduction) based on DCF.

You can download the research here: qbeyond-ag-2026-03-24-update-en-11fd8
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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