Classification of NuWays AG to Scandinavian Astor Group AB

Company Name:	Scandinavian Astor Group AB
ISIN:	SE0019175274
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	SEK 54
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Simon Keller

NSG turns Astor into a scaled defence platform; PT Up

Astor delivered a strong Q1 and announced a transformative step to consolidate NSG, one of its best-performing assets. Overall, the developments highlight solid execution of the order book and strategic continuity under the incoming leadership.

Q1 26 sales rose 74% yoy to SEK 130m and EBITDA more than tripled to SEK 27.8m, implying a 21.4% margin, up 10.6pp yoy. The improvement was driven by better capacity utilisation, a stronger business mix and the SEK 5.6m at-equity contribution from NSG. Even excluding this at-equity result, the margin would have been at 17%, up 6.2pp yoy. Particularly strong was the Astor Industry segment. Sales grew 47% yoy to SEK 75.4m, EBITDA more than doubled to SEK 19.7m, courtesy of a c. 12pp margin improvement, supported by higher defence deliveries.

The acquisition of the remaining 63.5% of NSG looks transformative and should materially lift Astor’s scale, visibility and earnings base. NSG adds a highly relevant defence-infrastructure niche, offering classified high-security constructions such as shelters, secure data centres and containerised protection solutions against intrusion, sabotage and EMP risks. This fits squarely into Astor Protect, in our view.

• The scale effect is substantial: based on a pro-forma Q1 calculation, group sales would rise by c. 80% to SEK 234m, EBITDA by c. 53% to SEK 42.7m, orders by c. 115% to SEK 194m and the order book by c. 110% to SEK 787m. NSG would therefore account for c. 44% of pro-forma sales, c. 48% of standalone EBITDA, c. 54% of orders and c. 52% of the combined order book.
• Financing also looks manageable: Astor is paying SEK 295m in fixed cash/debt-like consideration. In addition, c. 8.8m new shares will be issued to the sellers, increasing the share count by c. 14%. A further earn-out of up to SEK 147m is linked to NSG’s 2027 EBITDA and therefore only becomes relevant if the asset performs.
• Valuation looks attractive in light of the quality and growth profile. Astor is paying c. SEK 615m including the full earn-out for the acquired 63.5% stake, which corresponds to an acquired share of annualised Q1 EBITDA of SEK 52m (that is c. 12x price to acquired share of annualised EBITDA). Considering that the first stake in NSG was acquired significantly lower highlights Astor’s attractive M&A formula.

Meanwhile, Astor Protect, still largely driven by Ammunity, held up well sequentially, with sales almost flat qoq despite a seasonally strong Q4 base. With capex into new machinery at Ammunity set to lift production capacity from summer 2026, the segment should gain momentum over the coming quarters on a standalone basis as well.

In sum, the transaction is expected to be underlying margin-accretive and EPS-accretive. In our view, the deal materially strengthens the BUY case, as Astor is turning into a scaled listed European defence platform with a broader asset base, higher backlog visibility and stronger earnings capacity.

BUY, new PT SEK 54 (old: SEK 51), based on DCF and a peer group analysis.

You can download the research here: scandinavian-astor-group-ab-2026-05-08-previewreview-en-c4e15
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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