Classification of NuWays AG to Semperit AG Holding

Company Name:	Semperit AG Holding
ISIN:	AT0000785555
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 22
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Sarah Hellemann

Stronger operating performance causes raised FY26 guidance, PT up

Yesterday, Semperit raised its full year earnings forecast as the preliminary Q2 26 EBITDA exceeded expectations notably, backed by a strong business performance. In detail:

Q2 operating EBITDA set to double to around € 40m, materially ahead of our € 27.3m estimate. We attribute the outperformance primarily to stronger-than-projected pricing hikes in response to the recent raw material inflation and lower-than-modeled material costs, reflecting a more effective procurement mitigation than anticipated. Well-expected tailwinds - slow demand recovery and ongoing cost savings - are seen to have provided additional support. We forecast double-digit sales growth of 10.2% yoy to € 186m in revenue, supported by growth in both segments.

Implication on raw material sensitivity. Typically, Semperit could withstand a sharp price increase in critical raw materials for 4-6 weeks without material impact. The preliminary result published clearly implies the absence of a major hit in Q2. This comes despite the sudden price spike in synthetic rubber, which temporarily was up 39% from its level on 2 March 2026 (source: Trading Economics) due to the increase in oil prices caused by the Iran war. Hence, we can infer that now that Semperit is not impacted by temporary fluctuations for at least 12-13 weeks.

SIA should have continued to grow double-digit with +11.4% yoy to € 75.9m sales (eNuW) and a further improved EBITDA margin of 29.5% (eNuW: +10.5pp yoy), implying € 22.4m operating EBITDA. This comes against the backdrop of strong pricing adjustments, continuously improved capacity utilization and consistent cost control.

SEA looks set to have grown 9.5% yoy to € 110m (eNuW: +4.1pp yoy) at a strong EBITDA margin of 14.7%. In our view, this is attributable to notable pricing increases, consistent cost control, and improved capacity utilization. As we expect to see a gradual demand strengthening in mining, following accelerated permitting in the US since spring 2025, belting is viewed to deliver improved growth. Moreover, LSR is seen to continue on its strong growth trajectory while the Form business is anticipated with stronger seasonality thanks to favorable weather conditions.

FY26 guidance raised. Semperit now expects to reach € 100m in operating EBITDA, compared to € 95m previously. While higher material costs are expected to impact Q3 26, we view the new guidance as conservative, given the implication of H2 26 operating EBITDA of some € 33m. To recap, over the past five years on average, Semperit has delivered € 54.7m in H2. In the past two years it has improved from € 26.2m in H2 23 to € 48.8m in H2 25, clearly reflecting the operational turnaround. Based on the strong Q2 prelims and cautiously assuming a material cost ratio of 47.7% (eNuW) for Q3, compared to 42.8% in FY25 we raise our projected operating EBITDA to € 105m (eNuW), implying a 14.5% margin.

In our opinion, Semperit trades at undemanding valuation levels of 13.2x Forward P/E (12 months). Reiterate BUY at a raised PT of € 22 (previously € 21.5), based on DCF.

You can download the research here: semperit-ag-holding-2026-07-15-update-en-72138
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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