Classification of NuWays AG to THE NAGA GROUP AG

Company Name:	THE NAGA GROUP AG
ISIN:	DE000A41YCM0
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 9.50
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Frederik Jarchow

Mixed Q1 figures; guidance confirmed

Last week, NAGA reported preliminary Q1 figures that came in as a mixed bag with softer than expected revenues but strong bottom line. Further, the company confirmed its FY26 guidance. In detail:

Q1´26 revenues came in at € 14.4m (-12% yoy) mainly caused by negative FX effects resulting from the week EUR compared to USD. Operationally, high volatility events in March (Iran war) fuelled all KPI´s (i.e. +13% active customer, +21% trading volume, +17% new FTDs) and compensated for soft January and February stats resulting in flat revenues (yoy, ignoring FX effects)

EBITDA of € 2.3m (+130% yoy) was surprisingly strong, indicating that costs are well under control (all OPEX positions were below previous year´s level) and operational efficiency starts to materialize. Net profit came in at € 0.5m marking the first positive Q1 in NAGA´s history.

In a nutshell, we like the strong bottom line performance but are a bit worried regarding the top-line development. Usually Q1 and Q4 are the strongest quarters in retail brokerage and despite positive vola-events in March, Q1 revenues were “only” stable (on constant currency). That, paired with the fact that revenues have not shown any growth over the last years, the revenue guidance of € 68-75m looks ambitious, in our view (eNuW new: € 64m). Positively, the strong momentum in March should carry revenue growth will into Q2. Further, new product features such as AI-marketing (every campaign trains the next) or the “NAGA Portal” as “B2B2C Scale Engine” (using partners as micro influencers) are promising and should bode well for KPI´s and revenues going forward.

Once revenue growth is finally kicking back in, NAGA is expected to enjoy significant operational scale effects that are typical for platform businesses. That said, we remain cautious for the moment expecting only € 9.0m EBITDA (14% margin) for FY26 which is below management guidance of € 10-15m EBITDA (implying margins of 15-20%). Once we see indications of sustainable growth, we will adjust our estimates accordingly.

With Q1 figures, the company delivered a solid start into the year. Nevertheless, it needs further sequential improvements, especially on the top-line to achieve the guidance. We are convinced that the management took the right measures but leave some room for positive surprises in our estimates.

BUY with an unchanged PT of € 9.50 based on DCF.

You can download the research here: the-naga-group-ag-2026-04-27-previewreview-en-14964
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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