Classification of NuWays AG to THE NAGA GROUP AG

Company Name:	THE NAGA GROUP AG
ISIN:	DE000A41YCM0
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 7.30
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Simon Keller

Q3 review: growth with skin in the game, chg.

Stronger trading momentum reinforces our positive view on NAGA. September's recovery has continued into October, improving the earnings outlook on a leaner cost base. NAGA One and new strategic partners add growth potential, while the CEO's personal share commitment strengthens management alignment. Reiterate BUY.

September's recovery is extending into Q4. Revenue of € 7m made September the strongest month YTD, contributing more than half of Q3 sales. Management confirmed on the conference call that this trading momentum continued into October, supporting our expectation of stronger Q4 earnings (eNuW: € 3.1m EBITDA).

The leaner cost base increases earnings leverage. Personnel costs fell 21% qoq and operating expenses declined 13% qoq. Q3 sales of € 12.7m generated net revenue of € 12.1m (+2.2% qoq) and EBITDA of € 1.35m (-39% qoq), a 10.6% margin, while marketing spending rose 32% qoq ahead of product launches. 9M 26 EBITDA reached € 5.9m, already c. 60% above FY25.

Operating KPIs point to improving execution. Conversion rose 0.5pp qoq to 7.8%, with new funded clients up 4.4% qoq to 5,345. Deposits increased 4.8% qoq to € 23.6m and trading volume rose 52% qoq to € 57.8bn.

NAGA One should increase revenue per client. The planned Q4 launch combines trading, investing, crypto and payments in one app, alongside the planned rollout of Social 2.0 and Ask NAGA. Cross-selling and better retention should increase lifetime value across the existing client base.

Strategic financing brings capital and meaningful CEO alignment. NAGA's $ 8m convertible from Presto and MDream carries an 8% coupon over three years and is convertible at $ 4.26. A performance clause permits reduced-price conversion if revenue of $ 75m and operating cash flow of $ 13.5m are not achieved during the bond's second year. At current FX, the cash-flow threshold equates to c. € 12.0m. Assuming annual capex of € 4.2m (H1: € 2.1m), this implies c. € 7.8m FCF before financing payments, or a c. 14% yield on the c. € 56m market capitalisation (eNuW). If reduced-price conversion occurs, Patrascu additionally transfers up to 762,742 of his own shares, worth c. € 1.8m, reinforcing his personal incentive to deliver.

The partners can accelerate product rollout. Presto brings quantitative trading and risk-management expertise to improve liquidity, pricing and execution. MDream adds payments, wallet and digital-asset experience. Management expects initial benefits within two to three quarters, with yield products, automated quantitative strategies and NAGA Pay improvements broadening revenue opportunities (eNuW).

In sum, NAGA has evolved into a profitable business with strengthening operating momentum. Rising trading volumes and first-time depositor numbers demonstrate improving client activity, while 9M EBITDA already exceeds FY25 by c. 60%. The upcoming NAGA One launch and new partners' technological expertise support further growth. As revenues expand, the scalable platform model should provide operating leverage, allowing earnings to grow faster than sales (eNuW).

BUY, with a PT of € 7.30, based on DCF.

You can download the research here: the-naga-group-ag-2026-10-23-previewreview-en-03a0e
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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