Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE

Company Name:	tonies SE
ISIN:	LU2333563281
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 18.50
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Christian Sandherr

Q3 preview: Figurines in the driver’s seat

On November 12th, tonies will publish its Q3 trading statement (sales by region and category). We expect group sales of € 174m, +20% yoy (cc: +19%). The slowdown versus Q2 (+48% yoy) is largely a base effect: Q3 25 was the launch quarter of the Toniebox 2, when retailers restocked with the new box after holding back orders in H1 25. Underlying demand should remain healthy. Keep in mind that Q3 is driven by retailer sell-in ahead of the holiday season, so the figures say more about trade confidence in the Christmas assortment than about end-consumer demand.

Figurines become the main growth driver. For Tonieboxes, we expect 6% yoy growth to € 43m, as the category faces last year’s high TB2 sales volumes (Q3 25: +59% yoy). The Toniebox Lite should add first volumes but is unlikely to fully offset the high comparable base. More important is its role as a second entry point: at roughly half the TB2 price, it targets households that have so far stayed out of the ecosystem. Tonies figurines, in contrast, should grow 26% yoy to € 125m (eNuW), carried by the larger installed base from the TB2 cycle and new Pokémon and Bluey content. Demand for the latter looks strong: for instance, in the UK, tonies limits Bluey orders to three figurines per purchase. Accessories & Digital should add € 6m (+11% yoy).

North America keeps the pace. We model NA sales of € 71m (+31% yoy; cc +29%, as the stronger USD adds roughly € 1m), driven by figurine sales and the Lite roll-out. DACH shows the TB2 base effect most clearly: after +45% yoy in Q3 25, we expect € 65m (+6% yoy), with Bluey only reaching DACH shelves at the end of October. RoW looks set to grow 29% yoy to € 38m on rising household penetration in the UK, France and ANZ. With further market entries planned for 2027, any comment on the timing and choice of new countries would be welcome.

Sales guidance comfortably within reach. Including our Q3 estimate, 9M sales would reach € 417m (+30% yoy). To meet the FY guidance of >€ 760m (>20% cc), tonies needs Q4 sales of only some € 343m, i.e. +11% yoy. The setup for the holiday season looks supportive: after a successful launch at Walmart, the Lite goes on sale at all retailers on October 23rd, and the Bluey collection made Target's Top 50 holiday toys list. In North America, Q4 sales need to grow only roughly 18% cc to deliver the >30% cc regional target. We model FY26e sales of € 793m. The inventory built up in H1 for the H2 launches (FCF H1: € -64m) should unwind in Q4, supporting the guided positive FCF for the year.

Q4 remains the margin quarter. As every year, the bulk of profitability is earned in Q4, when high-margin figurines dominate the mix. H1's 0.7% adj. EBITDA margin (Toniebox-heavy mix, US tariff timing) is therefore no guide to the full year, and the 9-11% guidance looks achievable. Regional data underline the operating leverage: DACH, the most mature installed base, reached a 24.4% EBITDA margin in H1 (+7.9pp yoy), a path NA should follow as household penetration rises from today's low double digits.

BUY with an unchanged PT of € 18.50 based on DCF.

You can download the research here: tonies-se-2026-10-21-previewreview-en-26193
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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