Classification of Quirin Privatbank Kapitalmarktgeschäft to Vossloh AG

Company Name:	Vossloh AG
ISIN:	DE0007667107
Reason for the research:	update
Recommendation:	Buy
from:	26.10.2026
Target price:	76.00
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Martin Kaeser

Q4 key to FY 2026 guidance

Vossloh delivered mixed Q3 2026 results, with revenue increasing by 15.6% yoy to EUR 376.6m (~-5% without Sateba), EBITDA of EUR 47.6m at the prior-year level and EBIT of EUR 24.2m (-22.8% yoy). On a TTM basis, the book-to-bill ratio stands at 1.05x, supporting revenue visibility. Nevertheless, a strong year-end performance is necessary to achieve guidance. Taking the Q3 2026 results into consideration, Q4 revenue of EUR ~423.2m (~-2.6% yoy), EBITDA of EUR ~66.5m (~15.5% yoy) and EBIT of EUR ~43.4m (~21.6% yoy) would be required to reach the lower ends of the FY 2026 guidance ranges. Sateba is running below its implied prior-year revenue level. Based on Vossloh’s FY25 acquisition disclosure, we calculate Sateba sales of ~EUR 248m for 9M 2025, compared with ~EUR 218m in 9M 2026, implying a decline of roughly 12% yoy. For Q4, management expects a significant acceleration in earnings, supported by healthy-margin machine deliveries in Lifecycle Solutions, the expected realization of delayed projects in Morocco and Italy, and higher customer call-offs, including from the Deutsche Bahn. Improved volume absorption and UK capacity adjustments should provide additional margin support. Furthermore, the company confirmed and specified its 2026 guidance. Sales are now expected to be around the midpoint of the range (EUR 1.51–1.61bn), while EBITDA (EUR 195–210m) and EBIT (EUR 100–110m) are anticipated to be at the lower parts of their respective ranges. We maintain our Buy rating with a reduced TP of EUR 76 (80), based on our ROE/COE approach, underpinned by Vossloh’s favorable long-term growth prospects and structurally recurring replacement and modernization demand.

 

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