Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE

Company Name:	ZEAL Network SE
ISIN:	DE000ZEAL241
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 80
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Simon Keller

Driving diversification

Traumautoverlosung brings ZEAL’s proprietary charity-raffle format into the premium car category, with the first draw centred on a Porsche 911 GT3 RS worth € 349k. The launch fits neatly into ZEAL’s diversification strategy, as proprietary formats broaden the group’s offering beyond lottery brokerage, reduce dependence on jackpot cycles and support structurally stronger economics. ZEAL’s entire lottery business delivered a 17.7% billings margin in 2025, while proprietary raffle formats such as Traumhausverlosung are seen to carry c. 43% billings margin (eNuW). Execution risk also looks manageable, given ZEAL’s successful scale-up of Traumhausverlosung.

The first raffle is structured with 250,000 tickets at € 9.90, implying c. € 2.5m billings and c. € 1.1m revenue potential (eNuW, see p.2 for details), which remains modest in isolation. The attraction lies in ZEAL’s ability to scale the format over time. In our medium-term base case, we assume 300,000 tickets and c. € 1.3m revenue per draw at full sell-through. This would translate into c. € 11.5m revenue at 10 annual draws and 90% sell-through, equivalent to c. 5% of 2026e group sales. We therefore see Traumautoverlosung as an incremental growth driver (partly reflected in estimates).

A recent whitepaper on the UK prize draw market offers a useful external read-across for this strategy (source: Rokker, iGB):

• Younger demographics. The format is more lifestyle- and aspiration-driven than the classic lottery product and appears well suited to reach younger customer groups (incl. Gen Z and millennials).
• Appealing customer acquisition costs. Low ticket prices and emotionally strong prizes should support conversion, although transferability to ZEAL seems still limited at this stage, in our view.
• High cross-sell potential. The most relevant datapoint is the strong behavioural overlap: 88% of prize draw participants also engage in commercial gambling activities and lotteries over a 12-month period.

Q1 26 preview: ZEAL is due to report Q1 on 6 May (see p.2 for details). We expect a financially unexciting quarter, driven by the absence of peak jackpots in Lotto and EJ. Still, sales look set to improve 8% yoy to € 55.3m (broadly stable qoq), thanks to a growing monthly active user base. EBITDA is expected to decline 15% yoy to € 15.1m (broadly stable qoq), reflecting a demanding comp, as Q1 25 still benefited from active customer cohorts acquired in Q4 24, an unusually strong jackpot quarter. Overall, we would not overinterpret Q1, as the quarter says little about ZEAL’s full earnings power. It does, however, show that the business remains sequentially stable even in an unfavourable jackpot environment, while still funding new growth initiatives such as Traumautoverlosung.

BUY, PT € 80, based on DCF. - continued -
 

You can download the research here: zeal-network-se-2026-04-16-longupdate-en-80a4b
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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